Scry

The marathon of reading that is caused by our current isolation revealed an arcane verb…to scry. To scry, is to consult a crystal ball in order to predict the future. These days prediction and probability have become industries that work hand in hand with the opinion industry that has taken the place of news reporting. We are buried in poll numbers and prognostications and we need to remind ourselves that the assessment of probability is also an assessment of the outliers and anomalies. As Aristotle reminded us, ” it is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.” Indeed.

The crystal ball of statistical probability is opaque at best. In 1978, shortstop Bucky Dent hit a home run in a tie-breaker game against the Boston Red Sox that sent his New York Yankees to the World Series. Dent would become the MVP of the 1978 series that his heroics made possible for his team. Bucky provided an “alternative outcome” despite the weight of probability. Dent’s career featured 4,512 at bats and the modest total of 40 home runs. In addition, his lifetime batting average of .247 was not a meaningful data point ….any probability analysis would have placed Dent’s heroics at the lowest point of probability. Many improbable things can-and will-happen.

So, where are we in our ability to predict the virtually unpredictable? I remember the shock I felt when Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Every seasoned pollster and prognosticator had Hillary winning, until she didn’t. Cheating, voter suppression etc. were factors but factors that clearly were not known or considered, Our crystal ball was ultimately useless.

In a sense all life is a probability equation as certainty -in any form- is denied to us. Christian Huygens -a Dutch physicist and mathematician- put it succinctly: ” I believe that we do not know anything for certain but everything probably.”

So where does this leave us as we all wish for certain outcomes in these political and diseased times.? Our lack of certainty is in many ways the father of hope. The hope that Bucky will come to the plate at the magical time in the magical place. It is so often the outlier-the anomaly- that saves us.

As we approach the National Election, its churn of probability and anomaly, I will simply escape. My wife and I will be off to the desert where there is no television and thus no opinion mongers or prognosticators. We will learn who won after the fact. This approach may lack courage but it does recognize our fundamental inability to know what transpires until it does. Patience and hope will see us through.

Is this a good plan?…

Probably.